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Horse Racing - The Winning Way
Here is an interesting angle to consider in your horse-racing handicapping that you could have never thought of before. In harness racing, especially on half mile tracks, when a pony is denied the rail and compelled to race in the two path or "second over," it has to race much further than the horses running on the rail and it sometimes means the race is lost for that one.
Thoroughbreds also race in different trails and that can mean the difference between winning and losing. While being outside of the rail trail means less in thoroughbred racing, it still is important, more so in some races at certain distances and at defined tracks. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first 3 finishers of most races run, put simply whether or not they are on the rail, in the second path, or 3rd path, etc.
First it is a wonderful idea to grasp where most runners score from at every distance at the track ( s ) you typically play. For example, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions seldom win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn.
But how do you know which part of the track your horse will run on? How does one know which path it'll be ready to get to and score from? The answer is, nobody knows for sure and it is hard to calculate, but not totally impossible to have a rough idea. The most significant part is, when you're making an attempt to pick winners at the pony track, finding a horse that can run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that scenario can greatly enhance your horseracing handicapping.
The way to do that is to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try to decide where each runner will be at every stage of the race. To paraphrase, it will run from the three path.
That isn't so bad as long as there may simply be 2 horses in front of it, but if you like a horse but figure it is going to be kept off the rail and have to contend with a wall of horses in front of it, then you're relying upon some racing luck and the jockey finding an opening as they turn into the stretch. Many times, these runners encounter issues and wind up finishing in the money but missing the win. The larger the field the more tactical speed becomes vital.
Try handicapping a few races and figuring which trail each pony will be in and which ones will face problems or have to take up in the stretch or turn and you may be surprised by how good you are at noticing trouble and avoiding those gambles. In harness racing, particularly on half mile tracks, when a pony is denied the rail and forced to race in the two path or "second over," it's got to race much farther than the horses running on the rail and it usually means the race is lost for that one. Avoid a few bad gambles a day and you'll find you are shortly earning a return from the horse races. While being outside the rail trail means less in thoroughbred racing, it is still important, more so in some races at particular distances and at defined tracks. Some services provide information on track biases and where the first three finishers of most races run, to paraphrase whether they are on the rail, in the second trail, or third trail, and so on. Once you know that information, the very next thing is to try to decide where each pony in a race will run. For example, in a long race that starts near the turn, many times the outside post positions infrequently win because horses get hung out wide going into the turn. The most significant part is, when you're trying to pick winners at the horse track, finding a horse that will run into traffic problems during the race and avoiding that eventuality can seriously improve your horse-racing handicapping.
The way to do that's to read each horse's speed points and fractional times and try and determine where each runner will be at every stage of the race. For example, if there are three horses who figure to run right behind the leader, and you like the horse with the outside post position of the 3, then you can most likely figure the other two horses will be between your horse and the rail. To paraphrase, it'll run from the three trail. The bigger the field the more tactical speed becomes significant. Avoid one or two bad gambles a day and you'll find you are soon making a profit from the pony races.
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